The Belmont Stakes 2018 takes what we think we know and turns it on its head. At a mile and a half, the race is a true test of endurance. Contenders that look unbeatable in the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness arrive in New York only to look all-too-average by the finish line.
Will that be the case with Exaggerator, as well? The 3-year-old colt trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by his brother, jockey Kent Desormeaux, appears to pick up steam as a race progresses. Had the Kentucky Derby lasted a little longer, today we might be talking about Exaggerator going for a Triple Crown on Saturday rather than just adding another point to an already long list of accomplishments.
New York Racing Association odds maker Eric Donovon has set the morning line odds at 9-5 in Exaggerator's favor, which sounds great. Until you convert that into a percentage and find that is slightly more than a 35 percent chance Exaggerator is crowned in the blanket of carnations after the race. The field has a 65 percent chance of pulling off an upset.
It's not uncommon for a number of horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby to skip the Preakness. So, after a 20-horse field, filling both the main and auxiliary gates at Churchill Downs, only 11 horses were entered at Pimlico two weeks later. Of those, only a handful (Nyquist, Exaggerator, Lani) were Derby carryovers. It just doesn't make sense for most trainers to push a horse into three races across a scant five weeks.
And with hopes of a Triple Crown dashed for Nyquist, the Kentucky Derby winner who opened his career 8-for-8 -- as well as concerns over his health after a high white blood cell count and fever following the Preakness -- only Exaggerator and Lani will be entering all three races.
They'll welcome back from familiar faces, however. Suddenbreakingnews finished 4-1/2 lengths out of the Derby and has 10-1 odds. Destin finished about two lengths back of him in sixth. The Todd Pletcher trained horse has 6-1 odds. Brody's Cause, who was seventh in the Derby at about 9 lengths back, will compete, as well. He's at 20-1 odds. Creator, a Steve Asmussen trained horse, finished 13th in Kentucky at 18 lengths back. He's got 10-1 odds on Saturday.